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10 July 2025 | INSIGHTS
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Is Commercial Real Estate Returning to the (Old) Normal?

As a new rates cycle takes shape, there are signs commercial real estate has turned the corner and opportunities are opening up for investors

It’s fair to say commercial real estate investors have been through the wringer over recent years, following a significant and sustained period of volatility.

But with the MSCI Australia Annual Property Index delivering the first positive annualised return since 20231, Australian commercial real estate is starting to emerge from the downturn.

As you can see in the graph below, total returns have improved from -2.0% in 2Q24 to 1.4% in 1Q25, driven by income return of 1.3% and capital growth of 0.1% – the first quarterly increase since mid-20222

Quarterly Sector Returns

Source: MSCI, The Property Council of Australia/MSCI Annual Property Index

Levelling Up

The outlook is becoming more favourable, particularly as we look ahead towards further possible rate reductions.

We’re now reaching a point of normalisation – where assets are being priced on fundamentals, and financial conditions have become more of a level playing field. As a result, investors can have greater faith in underlying values and make more viable, due diligence-based decisions.

So exposure in retail, office and healthcare is becoming more attractive, as clearer fundamentals allow for more confident pricing decisions.

Catching the First Return

In any rates cycle, the early birds catch the first opportunities. This time around, eagle-eyed investors who moved first have already identified relative value in super-regional malls.

But there are still attractive sectors out there for investors prepared to do their due diligence.

  1. Neighbourhood retail should remain on investors’ horizons because of the long-term, sustainable and low-volatility income they can derive from the sector.
  2. Healthcare has been mispriced and can be difficult to access so an increased exposure could enhance investment portfolios. But not just any healthcare. Investors should be looking for managers who are partnered with the right operators in the right suburbs to service an ageing population.

WFH or RTO…the Great Debate

Turning to the office sector, the shift to working from home was one of the biggest lifestyle changes and economic adjustments resulting from COVID. So are there signs employees are returning to the office en masse? It’s happening, but not at the same pace around the country.

Every state capital varies in the level of working from home being adopted by corporate and government employers. And how that flows through to sustained demand for listed space is not parallel across all markets.

We’re still dealing with the effects of a sustained level of undersupply in some cities. But again, the picture isn’t consistent nationwide. For example, my home city of Brisbane has been an extraordinary story and looks set to continue in the same vein as we experience the next 5 to 10 years of growth in the region.

To List or Not To List…

So as we’ve seen there are opportunities out there. But how should investors go about accessing them? The pros and cons of listed and unlisted investments has been a great debate for many years.

Overall we’re seeing listed and unlisted property funds moving closer together in terms of valuation, as part of the normalisation process. This convergence helps reinforce investors’ confidence in underlying values.

But there are still differences between the two types of investment vehicle.

Listed markets tend to experience more volatility as they’re priced on a day-to-day, minute-by-minute basis – unlike unlisted markets, where external valuations and investor reports tend to be prepared on a quarterly basis.

It’s easy to assume pricing is always efficient and the market is always right. But it’s not always the case. Some operators can be over-punished for levels of debt and under-rewarded for potential value-add exposure.

Given where the MSCI Property Index is sitting, investors need to ask whether underlying value has been appropriately set in listed REITs, particularly with increased level of demand coming into the sector.

So if they’re looking for distressed value, it could be worth taking a closer look at individual listed opportunities across all sectors.

Asking the Right Questions

Commercial real estate investors need to look at how well individual assets are placed within local sub-markets and what has been the level of supply that might impact demand.

They should be asking some basic questions.

  • Can you price opportunities based on these fundamentals?
  • How does that pricing compare to the MSCI All Property Index?
  • How do yields stack up?

Seasoned investors know you can never guarantee success. But the best approach would be to look out for long-term sustainable low volatility exposures where you’re getting a strong relative real rate of return.

I recently had the opportunity to discuss this topic in more detail with Ausbiz. If you’d like to watch the interview, please click the link below:

[1] Australian Financial Review, Time to jump back into commercial property before you miss out, 18 May 2025
[2] MSCI, The Property Council of Australia/MSCI Annual Property Index