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8 October 2024 | Insight
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Navigating Investment Opportunities Amid a Shifting Economic Cycle

The investment landscape is constantly evolving and that’s especially true at this stage of the economic cycle.  Cutting through the ‘noise’ and focusing on what truly matters has never been more critical. One of the key lessons I’ve learned throughout my career is the importance of avoiding short-term reactions and maintaining a focus on long-term objectives. It’s crucial to remember that we are always at some point in a cycle, and with each turn of the cycle, significant opportunities present themselves to those who are prepared.

At present, we are transitioning from one economic cycle to another, with the expectation that interest rates and inflation will ease. As we navigate this late stage of the cycle, exciting investments are emerging. What do I mean by that?

Capturing the Trends and Staying Disciplined

Yields are at their most attractive point in 15 years, and with the view that an easing cycle is approaching, one would naturally think about adding to duration – Australian government bond yields are above 4% and our view are likely to benefit as rates fall.  Investors should also look at adding to long duration asset classes such as property that are expected to get a valuation boost from falling rates. We believe it is an attractive time in the cycle to be adding to real estate given the recent sector movements have created an opportunity to buy high quality assets at significant discounts to their previous highs in valuation.

However, managing fixed income in this environment requires careful consideration of credit risks. As rates remain high, the likelihood of further economic challenges grows. To mitigate these risks, we continue to favour investment grade floating rate credit, particularly in subordinated debt and capital securities from very high-quality banks. These securities offer attractive yields in the 6.0-7.0% range and are expected to provide stability as we navigate potential volatility in the months ahead.

Finding Opportunities in a Falling Rate Environment

On the private side, our lending business, Brighten, continues to experience strong growth, originating approximately $250 million in loans per month, with a total portfolio exceeding $2.5 billion. These loans, primarily consisting of regulated residential senior secured mortgages in major Australian cities, have provided attractive investment opportunities for our clients, delivering a 7+ year track record of regular income at a 4% premium to cash rates with 100% capital stability. We anticipate the growth in demand for reliable income streams at premiums to inflation to continue, driven by demographic trends and the point in the cycle we are approaching, with rates expected to fall.

Managing Risk and Maximising Value

Investing is essentially an exercise in taking risks. While people often compare returns across different types of investments, the critical factor is comparing the risks. At RAM, risk management is a fundamental part of our strategy, and we have always taken a disciplined approach to managing risk, which has been integral to our success and evidenced by the consistent nature of our returns.

A recent example from our real estate business highlights this approach. We acquired the Nundah asset when it was 70% complete. Not only did we dramatically reduce construction risk but will a large pre commitment managed the leasing risk and secured planning approval (change of use) before fully investing any money. This strategic approach allowed us to add significant value to the asset, increasing its worth by $20 million immediately after settlement. This level of disciplined execution enables us to deliver results, even in challenging market conditions.

RAM’s growth over the past eight years—from $300 million to nearly $5 billion in assets under management—reflects our commitment to disciplined, long-term investment strategies. As we look ahead, we remain focused on establishing RAM as a leading alternative asset manager in Australia. By investing in our people, processes, and systems, we are positioning ourselves for sustained growth and success.

I recently had the opportunity to discuss this topic in more detail with Livewire. If you’d like to read the full article, please click here: This point in the cycle is creating opportunities… RAM’s Scott Kelly unpacks them here – Chris Conway | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com)

Sincerely,

Scott Kelly
Managing Director, Group CEO


About the RAM Healthcare Opportunity Fund (HOF)

The RAM Healthcare Opportunity Fund is an open-ended property fund aimed at building a portfolio of premium healthcare real estate assets in Australia through asset repositioning and development. 

Why Invest in HOF?

  • Rare access to the scarce and defensive healthcare real estate asset class
  • Opportunity for co-investment with a major sovereign wealth fund, one of the largest healthcare investors in the world.
  • Gain exposure to high-quality healthcare property assets anchored by leading Australian hospitals and medical operators.
  • De-risked “build-to-core” strategy of premium Australian healthcare assets.
  • Invest with confidence in RAM’s proven track record in healthcare real estate, backed by a team of highly specialised healthcare property professionals.

About the Real Income Fund

The Real Income Fund aims to provide investors with an enhanced income stream through Australian secured credit. 

Why Invest in RIF?

  • Reliable, enhanced monthly income stream  
  • Conservatively average LVR across the portfolio of 63%
  • Diversified, secured Australian first ranking mortgages on property and other assets
  • Monthly liquidity provided through access to a $3bn funding pool
  • Conservatively managed portfolio with no development finance or unsecured finance